Just eight weeks in the past that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have piled up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side who have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
